DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/29 11:23
Grains Mixed at Midday
Corn is narrowly mixed, soybeans are narrowly mixed, and wheat is 2 cents
lower to 2 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 40. The dollar index is 60
points higher. Interest rate products are lower. Energies are weaker with crude
down $1.30. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold down
Corn trade is narrowly mixed with trade extending weakness before finding
two-sided action at midday with sales of 1.4325 million metric tons to Mexico
split between old and new crop with another 140,000 to unknown. Ethanol margins
remain stable with corn and energies failing. Basis will likely remain solid
with snow slowing harvest. Weekly export sales were strong at 2.24 million
metric tons. On the December contract resistance is the fresh high at $4.21 3/4
with support the 20-day at $3.99 which we bounced back above at midday.
Soybean trade is narrowly mixed with two sided action and firmer spread
action at midday. Meal is $1.50 to $2.50 higher and oil is 30 to 40 points
lower. Brazil should continue to make planting progress with the better rains
short term for most, while Argentina continues to remain slow in moving
soybeans to crushers as their currency remains at the low end of the range
supporting the holding of stocks as a dollar hedge especially with the dollar
strength this week. Basis remains strong as we continue to work to max out our
logistics capacity to ship the needed export bushels. Weekly export sales
remain solid at 1.62 million metric ton range, with 199,300 of meal, and 6,000
of oil. The November chart has resistance at the fresh high at 10.94 with
support the 20-day at 10.55 which we are holding at midday.
Wheat trade is 2 cents lower to 2 cents higher with trade chopping around
support levels. The near term weather pattern looks to warm for the plains to
support growth. The ruble action continues to favor Russia a bit in the export
markets but their domestic prices are now elevated but with improved short term
weather, along with Australia harvesting more. Middle East buyers are becoming
more active with tenders as well. Kansas City is at a 63-cent discount to
Chicago with spreads back to the recent highs again before reversing, while
Minneapolis is back to 53 cent discount with very active spread action on
going. Weekly export sales at 743,200 metric. Kansas City December chart
resistance is the fresh high at $5.79 1/2, and support is the 20-day at $5.42
which we are just below overnight, then the lower Bollinger Band at $5.12.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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